Shared by:bookmon
Paul Michael Wihbey (Author)
This transition began in 2001, and has been characterized by volatility and high prices, reduction in spare capacity, high demand, re-ordering of energy security priorities, emergence of powerful national oil companies and, most significantly, the rise of the unconventional heavy oils such as oil sands. Moreover, all of these developments are occurring against a geopolitical backdrop that includes a risk premium on prices resulting from the fallout from the September 11, 2001 al-Qaeda attacks on America and subsequent U.S. activities and policies relating to the Persian Gulf, Opec and oil.
As a result of these mostly unexpected changes in the global market, various futures are in a serious competition to define the new global order for energy supplies. As evidenced by President Bush’s January 2006 ‘Addiction to Oil’ State of the Union address, proponents of alternative energy, conservation and peak oil have had success in promoting their visions of what the new energy market order ought to be and how it should be supported by government subsidies and private sector capital flows.
It is within this context that unconventional heavy oil is at a critical junction to emerge as the most important ‘new’ source of energy for the next century. With estimated North American deposits alone, of two trillion barrels in oil sands (Alberta, Saskatchewan) and shale (Utah, Colorado, Wyoming), the potential to define the new market order on the platform of massive unconventional production volumes exists. The issue for investors then becomes one of verification of the reserve numbers (proven and probable) and a pricing mechanism to iron out price volatility by accounting for the geopolitical premium and reintroducing long-term price stability, an essential requirement for large-scale consumers like Europe, China and the United States, both in economic and political terms.
The successful development of Alberta’s oil sands is shifting the center of gravity in the oil market from light and conventional crude to heavy and unconventional, away from the Persian Gulf as the epicenter, to other centers of production in North America, West Africa, Latin America and Eurasia.
Major consumers like China, Europe, India and Japan share a convergence of interests with these new producers to build a new global market order based on secure supplies of reasonably priced crude whether light or heavy.
Between these major producing and consuming jurisdictions, sufficient capital, advanced technologies, and environmental safeguards exist to allow for a collaborative effort in the creation of a new integrated market order characterized by transparency, regulation, price stability and varied and abundant sources of petroleum.
189 pages
September 2009
Language: English
ISBN-10: 2970060248
ISBN-13: 978-2970060246
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